Prison population falls below 84,000 for first time since 2022 as earned-release scheme bites

The prison population in England and Wales fell to 83,700 on Friday, the lowest figure since March 2022 and more than 5,000 below the peak reached two years ago, as a scheme that allows prisoners to earn release after serving a third of their sentence passed 9,400 releases in its first six months.

The earned progression scheme, introduced in April for prisoners serving fixed terms of under four years, lets inmates who complete work, education and behaviour targets leave at the one-third point rather than the automatic halfway mark. Those who break prison rules are held to the halfway point or beyond. The Ministry of Justice said 71% of eligible prisoners had met the targets.

The fall has eased, though not ended, the capacity crisis that saw the system run with fewer than 500 free places in the summer of 2024 and courts told to delay sentencing. There are now about 3,100 spare places, and the ministry has paused the use of 260 police cells for overflow. Two new prisons, in Lancashire and Buckinghamshire, are due to add 3,400 places by 2028.

Dean Halloran, 34, was released from HMP Humber in September after serving 14 months of a 42-month sentence for burglary. He completed a forklift qualification and a literacy course and worked in the prison kitchen for seven months. “I have been in four times. This is the first time I have come out with a piece of paper that gets me a job,” he said. “Before, you did your half and they opened the gate. Nobody asked you to do anything. This time I had a reason to get up.”

The chief inspector of prisons said the scheme had changed the atmosphere on wings “in a way I have not seen in 20 years”, with assaults on staff down 18% in the prisons with the highest take-up. He cautioned, however, that the incentives depended on there being enough work and courses to go round, and that in a quarter of prisons inspected there were not. “A scheme that says earn your release and then offers nothing to earn it with is a cruelty, not a reform,” he said.

Victims’ groups have been critical. One national charity said it had been contacted by 340 victims who were “shocked to learn the person who hurt them was out a year early”. The ministry said victims of violent and sexual offences were notified and that the scheme did not apply to sentences above four years or to any sexual offence.

The probation service, which supervises everyone released under the scheme, has added 1,300 officers since 2024 but says caseloads remain above 60 per officer in some areas. The first reoffending figures for the scheme are due in April. Until then, the Prison Governors’ Association said, the fall in numbers “should be celebrated carefully, as every fall before it has been followed by a rise”.